J Cancer 2018; 9(14):2543-2548. doi:10.7150/jca.24431

Research Paper

Nomograms and risk scores for predicting the risk of oral cancer in different sexes: a large-scale case-control study

Fa Chen1,2*, Lisong Lin3*, Lingjun Yan1,2, Fengqiong Liu1,2, Yu Qiu3, Jing Wang4, Zhijian Hu1,2, Junfeng Wu1,2, Xiaodan Bao1,2, Liangkun Lin1,2, Rui Wang1,2, Guoxi Cai5, Kiyoshi Aoyagi6, Lin Cai1, Baochang He1,2✉

1. Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Environment Factors and Cancer, School of Public Health, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education for Gastrointestinal Cancer, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China;
3. Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China;
4. Laboratory Center, School of Public Health, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China;
5. Nagasaki Prefectural Institute of Environmental Research and Public Health; Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan;
6. Department of Public Health, Nagasaki University Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Nagasaki, Japan.
*These authors contributed equally to this work.

Abstract

Background: Although previous studies have explored the associations of modifiable lifestyle factors with oral cancer risk, few studies integrated these factors and established predictive tools for oral cancer risk in different sexes.

Methods: Using a case-control study design, a total of 978 oral cancer cases and 2646 healthy controls were recruited in this study. Nomograms were constructed according to significant factors in multivariable logistic regression. Risk scores were calculated based on the nomograms and quantified the risk of oral cancer using restricted cubic spline.

Results: Multivariate analyses demonstrated that smoking, alcohol drinking, tea, intake of fish, seafood, vegetables, fruits, teeth loss, regular dental visits and repetitive dental ulcer were independent factors for male oral cancer. Passive smoking, age at first intercourse, cooking oil fumes exposure, tea, intake of beans, vegetables, fruits, teeth loss, regular dental visits and repetitive dental ulcer were associated with female oral cancer. Then, two nomograms were developed for predicting the probability of oral cancer in men and women with the C-index of 0.768 (95% CI: 0.723-0.813) and 0.700 (95% CI: 0.635-0.765), respectively. Restricted cubic splines graphically revealed the risk of oral cancer in individuals with different risk scores. Moreover, the risk escalated continuously with the increasing number of the risk scores among both sexes.

Conclusions: Combining nomograms with risk scores developed in this study could precisely predict oral cancer occurrence and provide an accurate risk assessment.

Keywords: Oral cancer, lifestyle factors, nomogram, risk score, sex

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How to cite this article:
Chen F, Lin L, Yan L, Liu F, Qiu Y, Wang J, Hu Z, Wu J, Bao X, Lin L, Wang R, Cai G, Aoyagi K, Cai L, He B. Nomograms and risk scores for predicting the risk of oral cancer in different sexes: a large-scale case-control study. J Cancer 2018; 9(14):2543-2548. doi:10.7150/jca.24431. Available from http://www.jcancer.org/v09p2543.htm