J Cancer 2019; 10(3):583-593. doi:10.7150/jca.28991

Research Paper

Nomogram Predicting Cause-Specific Mortality in Nonmetastatic Male Breast Cancer: A Competing Risk Analysis

Wei Sun1, Minghua Cheng1, Huaqiang Zhou2, Wenqi Huang3, Zeting Qiu1✉

1. Department of Anesthesiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong, People's Republic of China
2. Department of Medical Oncology, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, Guangdong, People's Republic of China
3. Department of Anesthesiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, People's Republic of China

Abstract

Introduction: Male breast cancer (MBC) is a rare tumor with few cases for research. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program database, we carried out a competing risk analysis in patients with primary nonmetastatic MBC and built a predictive nomogram.

Materials and Methods: We extracted primary nonmetastatic MBC patients according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Cumulative incidence function (CIF) and proportional subdistribution hazard model were adopted to explore risk factors for breast cancer-specific death (BCSD) and other cause-specific death (OCSD). Then we built a nomogram to predict the 3-year, 5-year and 8-year probabilities of BCSD and OCSD. C-indexes, Brier scores and calibration curves were chosen for validation.

Results: We identified 1,978 nonmetastatic MBC patients finally. CIF analysis showed that the 3-year, 5-year and 8-year mortalities were 5.2%, 10.6% and 16.5% for BCSD, and 6.1%, 9.6% and 14.4% for OCSD. After adjustment of Fine and Gray models, black race, PR (-), advanced T/N/grade and no surgery were independently associated with BCSD. Meanwhile, elderly, unmarried status, advanced AJCC stage and no chemotherapy resulted in OCSD more possibly. A graphic nomogram was developed according to the coefficients from the Fine and Gray models. The calibration curves displayed exceptionally, with C-indexes nearly larger than 0.700 and Brier scores nearly smaller than 0.100.

Conclusion: The competing risk nomogram showed good accuracy for predictive prognosis in nonmetastatic MBC patients. It was a useful implement to evaluate crude mortalities of BCSD and OCSD, and help clinicians to choose appropriate therapeutic plans.

Keywords: Nonmetastatic male breast cancer, SEER database, Competing risk nomogram, Breast cancer-specific death, Other cause-specific death, Fine and Gray model

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How to cite this article:
Sun W, Cheng M, Zhou H, Huang W, Qiu Z. Nomogram Predicting Cause-Specific Mortality in Nonmetastatic Male Breast Cancer: A Competing Risk Analysis. J Cancer 2019; 10(3):583-593. doi:10.7150/jca.28991. Available from http://www.jcancer.org/v10p0583.htm