ISSN: 1837-9664Journal of Cancer
Global reach, higher impact
J Cancer 2024; 15(3):737-746. doi:10.7150/jca.90428 This issue Cite
Research Paper
A Novel Model Using Serum Thymidine Kinase 1 and Low-dose Computed Tomography Parameters to Predict Three-year Lung Cancer Risk in People with Pulmonary Nodules: A Retrospective Study
1. First Affiliated Hospital of University of Science and Technology of China, Division of Life Sciences and Medicine, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, 230001, China.
2. Department of Medicine, Shenzhen Ellen-Sven Precision Medicine Institute, Shenzhen, 518000, China.
3. China Health Promotion Foundation, Beijing, 100161, China.
‡The authors contributed equally.
Abstract
This study was designed to develop a model of serum thymidine kinase 1 protein (STK1p) concentration in combination with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) to predict the risk of benign pulmonary nodules progressing into lung cancer within three years in a large screening population. The study included a retrospective cohort of 6,841 individuals aged > 30 years who had LDCT-detected pulmonary nodules, but no cancer history or baseline cancer. The outcome was a lung cancer diagnosis recorded within three years after the first detection of pulmonary nodules. The adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator was used to select candidate predictors and fit a logistic model. The model was validated internally by examining discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration (calibration plot)) and net benefit. A web application was developed based on the model. The results showed that the proportion of incident lung cancer cases was 0.79% (n=52). Predictors selected for the model were STK1p and three LDCT parameters (nodule size, type, and count). The AUC of the model was 0.91 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.86, 0.96). The model had satisfactory discrimination at internal validation (AUC: 0.90 (0.84, 0.96)) and in subgroups (AUC=0.69-0.93). The high-risk group identified by the model exhibited a significantly higher three-year lung cancer risk than the low-risk group (odds ratio (OR): 66.03 (95% CI: 30.49, 162.98)). We concluded that the novel model of STK1p and LDCT parameters together can be used to accurately predict the three-year risk of lung cancer in people with pulmonary nodules.
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