J Cancer 2020; 11(11):3303-3309. doi:10.7150/jca.41056 This issue

Research Paper

A Preoperative Risk Prediction Model for Lymph Node Examination of Stage I-III Colon Cancer Patients: A Population-Based Study

Yuliuming Wang1*, Xu Guan2*, Yukun Zhang1, Zhixun Zhao2, Zhifeng Gao1, Haipeng Chen2, Weiyuan Zhang1, Zheng Liu2, Zheng Jiang2, Yinggang Chen1, Guiyu Wang1✉, Xishan Wang2✉

1. Department of Colorectal Surgery, the Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, China.
2. Department of Colorectal Surgery, National Cancer Center / National Clinical Research Center for Cancer / Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
*These authors contributed equally to this work.

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). See http://ivyspring.com/terms for full terms and conditions.
Wang Y, Guan X, Zhang Y, Zhao Z, Gao Z, Chen H, Zhang W, Liu Z, Jiang Z, Chen Y, Wang G, Wang X. A Preoperative Risk Prediction Model for Lymph Node Examination of Stage I-III Colon Cancer Patients: A Population-Based Study. J Cancer 2020; 11(11):3303-3309. doi:10.7150/jca.41056. Available from https://www.jcancer.org/v11p3303.htm

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Background: Lymph node examination is a prognostic indicator for colon cancer (CC) patients. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a preoperative risk prediction model for inadequate lymph node examination.

Methods: 24284 patients diagnosed as stage I-III CC between 2010-2014 were extracted from SEER database and randomly divided into development cohort (N=12142) and internal validation cohort (N=12142). 680 patients diagnosed as stage I-III CC between 2012-2014 were extracted from our hospital as external validation cohort. Logistic regression analysis was performed and risk score of each factor was calculated according to model formula. Model discrimination was assessed using C-statistics.

Results: Preoperative risk factors were identified as gender, age, tumor site and tumor size. Patients with total risk score of 0-6 were considered as low risk group while patients scored ≥13 were considered as high risk group. The model had good discrimination and calibration in all cohorts and could apply to patients in the SEER database (American population) and patients in our hospital (Chinese population).

Conclusions: The model could accurately predict the risk of inadequate lymph node examination before surgery and might provide useful reference for surgeons and pathologists.

Keywords: prediction model, colon cancer, lymph node examination