J Cancer 2020; 11(5):1223-1230. doi:10.7150/jca.38861 This issue

Research Paper

Proposal of predictive model on survival in unresectable pancreatic cancer receiving systemic chemotherapy

Noriko Ishii1, Hiroki Nishikawa1✉, Yoshinori Iwata1, Hirayuki Enomoto1, Hironori Tanaka2, Nobuyuki Katakami3, Takashi Nishimura1, Hiroko Iijima1, Shuhei Nishiguchi1

1. Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Hyogo College of Medicine, Nishinomiya, Hyogo, Japan.
2. Department of gastroenterology, Takarazuka municipal hospital, Takarazuka, Hyogo, Japan.
3. Department of oncology, Takarazuka municipal hospital, Takarazuka, Hyogo, Japan.

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Citation:
Ishii N, Nishikawa H, Iwata Y, Enomoto H, Tanaka H, Katakami N, Nishimura T, Iijima H, Nishiguchi S. Proposal of predictive model on survival in unresectable pancreatic cancer receiving systemic chemotherapy. J Cancer 2020; 11(5):1223-1230. doi:10.7150/jca.38861. Available from https://www.jcancer.org/v11p1223.htm

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Abstract

Aims: To construct a predictive model for overall survival (OS) in unresectable pancreatic cancer (PaC) undergoing systemic chemotherapy and to confirm its accuracy in an independent cohort.

Patients and methods: The training set (Ts) and the validation set (Vs) included 93 patients (median age=71 years) and 75 patients (median age=76 years). In the Ts, we examined variables linked to OS by uni- and multivariate analyses and constructed a predictive model for OS. Next, we evaluated the reproducibility of the proposed model in the Vs.

Results: In the multivariate analysis for the Ts, PaC stage IV (P=0.0020) and carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 ≥437.5 IU/l (P=0.0237) were identified to be significant factors associated with OS. Patients with PaC stage IV or not were given a score of 1 or 0, whereas patients with CA19-9 ≥437.5 IU/l or <437.5 IU/l were given a score of 1 or 0. Sum of the point of PaC stage (0 or 1) and CA19-9 (0 or 1) was defined as “PaC-CA score”. In the Ts, there were 16 patients with score 0, 40 with score 1 and 37 with score 2, while in the Vs, there were 9 patients with score 0, 32 with score 1 and 34 with score 2. Overall P values reached significance in the Ts (P=0.0002), the Vs (P=0.0029) and the combined Ts and Vs (P<0.0001) among patients with PaC score 0, 1 and 2.

Conclusion: PaC-CA score can be helpful for risk stratification in PaC patients undergoing systemic chemotherapy.

Keywords: Unresectable pancreatic cancer, Chemotherapy, Survival, Predictive model, Validation.