J Cancer 2020; 11(7):1702-1711. doi:10.7150/jca.38180 This issue

Research Paper

Prognosis of colorectal cancer patients is associated with the novel log odds of positive lymph nodes scheme: derivation and external validation

Qing-Wei Zhang1*, Chi-Hao Zhang2 *, Yuan-Bo Pan3*, Alberto Biondi4*, Valeria Fico4, Roberto Persiani4, Shan Wu1, Yun-Jie Gao1, Hui-Min Chen1, Ou-Min Shi5✉, Zhi-Zheng Ge1✉, Xiao-Bo Li1✉

1. Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Key Laboratory of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Ministry of Health, Renji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai Institute of Digestive Disease, Shanghai, China
2. Department of General Surgery, Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Baoshan, 201999, Shanghai, China
3. Department of Neurosurgery, Second Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.
4. Dipartimento Scienze Gastroenterologiche ed Endocrino-Metaboliche, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli IRCCS -Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Roma, Italy Largo F. Vito, 100168 Rome, Italy.
5. School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, South Chongqing Road No, Shanghai 227, China.
* contributed equally to this work.

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Citation:
Zhang QW, Zhang CH, Pan YB, Biondi A, Fico V, Persiani R, Wu S, Gao YJ, Chen HM, Shi OM, Ge ZZ, Li XB. Prognosis of colorectal cancer patients is associated with the novel log odds of positive lymph nodes scheme: derivation and external validation. J Cancer 2020; 11(7):1702-1711. doi:10.7150/jca.38180. Available from https://www.jcancer.org/v11p1702.htm

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Abstract

Background and aim: To construct proper and externally validate cut-off points for log odds of positive lymph nodes scheme (LODDS) staging scheme in colorectal cancer (CRC).

Patients and methods: The X-tile approach was used to find the cut-off points for the novel LODDS staging scheme in 240,898 patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database and externally validated in 1,878 from the international multicenter cohort. Kaplan-Meier plot and multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were performed to investigate the role of the novel LODDS classification.

Results: The prognostic cut-off values were determined as -2.18, and -0.23 (P< 0.001). Patients had 5-year cancer-specific survival rates of 83.8%, 57.4% and 24.4% with increasing LODDS (P< 0.001) in the SEER database. Five-year overall survival rates were 77.2%, 55.0% and 26.7% with increasing LODDS (P< 0.001) in the external international multicenter cohort. Multivariate survival analysis identified both the LODDS classification, the patient's age, the T category, the M status, and the tumor grade as independent prognostic factors in both two independent databases. The analyses of the subgroup of patients stratified by tumor location (colon or rectum), number of retrieved lymph node (< 12 or ≥ 12), TNM stage III, lymph node-negative also confirmed the LODDS as independent prognostic factors (P< 0.001) in both two independent databases.

Conclusions: The novel LODDS classification was an independent prognostic factor for patients with CRCs and should be calculated for additional risk group stratification with pN scheme.

Keywords: Colorectal cancer, cause-specific survival, overall survival, log odds of positive lymph nodes, multicenter, SEER.