J Cancer 2020; 11(18):5359-5370. doi:10.7150/jca.46152 This issue

Research Paper

The Nomogram for Early Death in Patients with Bone and Soft Tissue Tumors

Yao Xu1#, Guijun Xu1,2#, Haixiao Wu1#, Feng Lin1, Min Mao3, Vladimir P. Baklaushev4, Vladimir P. Chekhonin5, Karl Peltzer6, Jun Wang7, Guowen Wang1, Xin Wang8✉, Chao Zhang1✉

1. Department of Bone and Soft Tissue Tumors, Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital, National Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Key Laboratory of Cancer Prevention and Therapy, Tianjin's Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Tianjin, China.
2. Department of orthopaedics, Tianjin Hospital, Tianjin, China.
3. Department of Pathology and Southwest Cancer Center, First Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University, Chongqing, China.
4. Federal Research and Clinical Center of Specialized Medical Care and Medical Technologies, Federal Biomedical Agency of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation.
5. Department of Basic and Applied Neurobiology, Federal Medical Research Center for Psychiatry and Narcology, Moscow, Russian Federation.
6. Department of Research and Innovation, University of Limpopo, Turfloop, South Africa.
7. Department of Oncology, Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Medical Institute of Peoples' Friendship University of Russia, Moscow, Russia.
8. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, First Affiliated Hospital, Army Medical University, Chongqing, China.
#Equal contributions to this work.

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). See http://ivyspring.com/terms for full terms and conditions.
Citation:
Xu Y, Xu G, Wu H, Lin F, Mao M, Baklaushev VP, Chekhonin VP, Peltzer K, Wang J, Wang G, Wang X, Zhang C. The Nomogram for Early Death in Patients with Bone and Soft Tissue Tumors. J Cancer 2020; 11(18):5359-5370. doi:10.7150/jca.46152. Available from https://www.jcancer.org/v11p5359.htm

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Abstract

Objectives: The present study aimed to evaluate the early mortality rate and associated factors for early death in bone and soft tissue tumors, and to construct predictive nomogram.

Methods: Patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) dataset were enrolled. The early death (survival time ≤ 3 months) rate was calculated and associated risk factors were evaluated by the logistic regression models. The significant factors were used to construct predictive nomograms.

Results: A total of 2,003 (8.5%) patients died within 3 months after cancer diagnosis, among whom 1,146 (4.9%) patients died from cancer-specific cause. Older age (19-50 and >50 years), grade (III and IV), reginal or distant stage were associated with higher odds of total, cancer-specific and non-cancer-specific early death. T2 stage, metastasis to brain and lung were risk factors for total and cancer-specific early death. Surgical interventions significantly decreased the odds of total, cancer-specific and non-cancer-specific early death. Female and black race were associated with lower odds of non-cancer-specific early death. The area under the curve (AUC) of the nomograms for total early death, cancer-specific and non-cancer-specific early death prediction was 88.0%, 89.0% and 83.2%, respectively.

Conclusions: A total of 8.5% patients with bone and soft tissue tumors suffered early death. Several risk factors were associated with higher odds of early death while surgery can decrease the possibility of early death. Nomograms based on all related factors can be used to estimate the early death in bone and soft tissue tumors.

Keywords: Bone and soft tissue tumors, SEER program, Early death, Nomograms